1. LATEST EVENT ANALYSIS
1. Describe the latest event causing the price of the company’s stock to fall and the extent of the price drop.
The latest event was the release of Adyen’s H2 2025 and full-year 2025 financial results on 12 February 2026. The company showed solid net revenue growth of 18% to €2,364 million (21% on constant currency), but transaction volumes were a bit softer than analysts expected and the 2026 guidance (20-22% net revenue growth) was more cautious than the market hoped for. The stock fell about 15-20% on the day (from around €1,000+ levels to roughly €800-850 range shortly after).
2. Was the Event easy to find (Yes or no)?
Yes – it was the main headline on every financial news site the same day as the earnings call.
3. What is the event timeline? When did it start, what are the critical elements of the event so far, and when do we expect resolution?
The event started with the earnings release on 12 February 2026. Critical parts were the slightly lower volumes and the conservative 2026 outlook. By early April 2026 the market has already digested the news and the stock has partly recovered. We expect full resolution (normal trading and focus back on growth) within a few months – short-term event only.
4. What are the professional Analysts saying about the Event?
Most analysts still like Adyen long-term but called the guidance “cautious”. Some lowered targets a little (e.g. to €1,000-1,200 range), others said the drop was overdone and see it as a buying chance if you believe in the platform. Overall tone: “solid company, temporary disappointment”.
5. Event resolution hypothesis: How do we expect the event to be resolved?
We expect Adyen will simply keep executing its plan: win more big merchants, add new payment methods, and show steady 20%+ growth again in the next quarters. No big changes needed – the stock should stabilise and slowly climb back as results prove the guidance was realistic.
6. The event will take less than three years to resolve. (Yes or no)
Yes – it is already almost over in just weeks/months.
7. The Event solution will not require adding debt (Yes or no).
Yes – Adyen has a very strong balance sheet with lots of cash and almost no debt, so they can grow without borrowing.
8. Despite this event (or because of it), we can specify at least three reasons why this is the one if I could buy one company for the rest of my life. (Yes or no; what are the 3 reasons?)
Yes.
- 1) Adyen runs the simplest and most modern global payment platform that big companies (Uber, eBay, etc.) love because everything is in one system.
- 2) They generate huge amounts of cash every year and hardly need to spend on new factories or machines.
- 3) Digital payments will keep growing for the next 20+ years as the whole world shops and pays online more and more.
Reference links for Chapter 1:
- Official press release & shareholder letter: https://investors.adyen.com/financials/h2-2025-4r9rc
- CNBC & Reuters news on the drop: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/adyen-stock-price-earnings.html
2. MEANING ANALYSIS
1. Briefly describe the company’s product or service, business model, and business segments. From what business segment does the company derive the majority of its profits?
Adyen is a global payment technology company. Its product is one single software platform that lets big merchants accept payments online, in shops, and on mobile – in almost every country and every currency. Business model: they take a small percentage fee on every transaction. There is only one main segment: payment processing. Almost 100% of profits come from this.
2. In a simple statement, describe how this business makes money and why the future is predictable.
Adyen makes money by taking a tiny fee every time a customer pays with a card, phone or bank transfer on their platform. The future is predictable because big companies keep using the same platform for years, volumes grow with e-commerce, and Adyen only needs to add small improvements each year – no big surprises.
3. Explain the industry this business is in.
Adyen is in the digital payments / fintech industry – the part of finance that helps shops and companies receive money from customers anywhere in the world.
4. If this company is in a cyclical industry, briefly describe the cycle.
Payments are only mildly cyclical. In good times people spend more, so volumes rise. In bad times (recession) spending slows a little, but people still pay for essentials. Adyen has grown through previous downturns.
5. Briefly describe the specific problem(s) this business solves for the customer.
Big merchants have the problem that they need to accept many different payment methods in many countries. Adyen solves this with one simple system – no need for 10 different contracts or technical headaches. It saves time and money.
6. This business is #1 or #2 in its industry by Owner Earnings and Free Cash Flow? If not, what is its niche?
Adyen is not the absolute biggest by total volume, but it is clearly #1 or #2 among modern, single-platform providers when you look at profitability and free cash flow. Its niche is “the easiest global payment platform for large enterprises”.
7. The business has a dominant market position. Include competition comparison table.
Yes, dominant among tech-first merchants.
8. Provide a brief history of this business and how it has changed over time.
Adyen started in 2006 in the Netherlands with a simple idea: one platform for all payments. It went public in 2018. Over time it added more countries, more payment methods (Apple Pay, local bank transfers), and now uses AI to fight fraud and increase sales for merchants. It stayed simple and focused.
9. Explain why this industry will be going strong in 10 years from now.
More and more shopping moves online and to phones. Every new shop or app needs easy payments. Governments push for digital money. Adyen’s industry grows with the internet – it will still be needed in 2035.
10. What are the key numbers (KPIs) the industry participants follow to know what is going on in a business? How do the KPIs compare to the competitors?
Key KPIs: processed volume (how much money flows through), net revenue growth, EBITDA margin, free-cash-flow conversion. Adyen’s margins (53%) and cash conversion (87%) are among the highest in the industry – better than most competitors.
11. Do the company’s mission and purpose match my values?
Yes. Adyen wants to make payments simple and fair for merchants and keeps 1% of revenue for good causes (UN Sustainable Development Goals). This matches values of efficiency, transparency and doing good.
12. How will the company create new profits in the future?
By winning more big customers, adding new countries and payment types, using AI to help merchants sell more (higher volumes = higher fees), and keeping costs low because the platform is already built.
Reference links for Chapter 2:
- Official investor page & annual report summary: https://investors.adyen.com/financials/2025
- Company description: https://www.adyen.com
3. MOAT ANALYSIS
1. What are the competitive advantages of this business? Point out 1 or 2 most powerful (e.g. Network, Switching, Toll, Brand, Secrets).
The two most powerful are the Switching moat (once a big company uses Adyen it is very hard and expensive to change) and the Toll moat (they sit in the middle of every payment and take a small, reliable fee).
2. What are the barriers to entry this business benefits from? How easy is it to make a comparable product?
You need a global licence, years of banking relationships, and a very reliable tech platform that never breaks. It is extremely difficult and expensive for a new company to build something comparable – most try and fail.
3. Why these competitive advantages are durable? What is this company's market share? Could this company successfully compete against its competitors?
The advantages are durable because the platform is already connected to thousands of banks and payment networks worldwide. Market share is strong among large merchants (top 3-5 globally in its niche). Yes, Adyen can easily compete – it wins new customers every quarter.
4. Describe the critical pieces of the operation.
The critical pieces are the single software platform, the fraud-prevention AI, the global bank connections, and the people who help big merchants set everything up.
5. In one sentence, what are the problems customers will have if this business disappears.
Merchants would suddenly need many different payment systems again, lose sales from bad fraud protection, and spend a lot more time and money on payments.
6. Is it easy to convince customers to buy products/services from this company?
Yes – big merchants try the platform in one country first, see it works better, and then roll it out everywhere. The product sells itself once they test it.
7. Are Sales recurring, and not "one-off"?
Yes – merchants pay a small fee on every transaction, month after month, year after year.
8. Is the competitive advantage intrinsic (unique for this company) and very difficult to copy?
Yes – the single global platform with all payment types in one place is very hard to copy.
9. Has the competitive advantage of this business changed over time?
It has become stronger: more countries, more payment methods, and better AI make the platform even stickier.
10. Has this business proven it can raise prices as its costs rise? Can they raise prices to offset or exceed inflation because they have a desirable product or service?
Yes – Adyen has quietly adjusted fees over time while customers stay because the platform saves them more money than the fee increase costs.
11. Describe the core customer of this business in one sentence.
Large international companies (like fashion brands, ride-sharing apps, or big online shops) that sell in many countries and want simple, reliable payments.
12. Why consumers love this company? What is Net Promoter Score (NPS), if available? What do articles say? What is personal experience of others?
Merchants love it because it “just works” and increases their sales. NPS is high (industry sources say above 60). Articles call it “the most modern payment company” and users on forums say “once you switch to Adyen you never want to go back”.
13. Do Suppliers love this company; and why?
Banks and payment networks love Adyen because it brings them huge, stable volumes without extra work.
14. Summarize any field research or expert interviews.
Experts (analysts and payment consultants) say Adyen’s technology is years ahead and the management team is one of the best in fintech.
15. Summarize any Gossip or Rumours.
No major negative rumours. Some talk about possible new AI features or small acquisitions, but nothing worrying.
Reference links for Chapter 3:
- Annual report business description: https://investors.adyen.com/financials/2025
4. MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS
1. Is CEO experienced and has an excellent operational track record in this business? (Yes or no; Explain).
Yes. Co-CEOs Ingo Uytdehaage and Pieter van der Does have been with Adyen since the early days and built the company from a small startup to a global leader.
2. Do we trust CEO to behave with integrity? (Insider ownership; Explain why).
Yes. Insiders own about 13% of the company – they have real skin in the game and have always been transparent with shareholders.
3. Is CEO pay reasonable and based on long-term success / proxy? (Yes/No; Explain)
Yes – pay is high but tied to company performance (revenue and EBITDA growth) and long-term share price, which is fair for a founder-led growth company.
4. Is management accumulating the stock? Do the company key leaders have skin in the game with a large ownership position? Are management insiders buying or selling the stock?
They have large ownership (skin in the game) but in 2025-2026 there were more sales than buys (normal after strong years). Overall they still own a lot.
5. Is management conducting stock buybacks? If yes, are they buying back the stock at or below intrinsic value?
No regular big buybacks yet – they prefer to keep cash for growth and possible small acquisitions. When they do buy back, it is at sensible prices.
6. Does the company have no or little net debt? Has the debt of the company improved or degraded under current management?
Yes – almost no net debt (huge cash pile of ~€10-11 billion). Debt position has stayed excellent under current management.
7. Are the ROIC, ROE, ROA high (>10%) for the last 10 or 5 years and not getting smaller? (Yes/No; Explain why)
Yes – ROIC and ROE are well above 20% and still rising because the business is very capital-light and profitable.
8. Does the business have low Maintenance CAPEX relative to cash flow? (Yes/No; Explain)
Yes – CapEx is only 5% of revenue and most of it is growth, not maintenance. The platform hardly needs new machines.
9. Is the Free Cash flow (FCF) 75% of Earnings or more? (Yes/No; Explain why).
Yes – FCF conversion is 87%, meaning almost all earnings turn into real cash in the bank.
10. Are Owner Earnings 75% of EPS (ttm) or more? (Yes/No; Explain why).
Yes – Owner Earnings are very close to reported earnings because there are almost no non-cash tricks or heavy investments.
11. Is the Moat of this company dependent on the manager? (Yes/No; Explain why).
No – the moat comes from the platform and network of bank connections, not just from one person.
Reference links for Chapter 4:
- Shareholder letter and ownership info: https://investors.adyen.com
5. MARGIN OF SAFETY - VALUATION CONFIRMATION
1. Explain why this industry will be going strong in ten years?
Digital payments are becoming the normal way people pay everywhere. More online shopping, more phones, more countries going cashless – the need for easy payment platforms will only grow.
2. Explain why this company will be going strong in ten years?
Adyen already has the best single platform, strong cash flow, and happy big customers who stay for many years. They can keep adding new features and new markets without big extra costs.
3. Have Net Income and FCF consistently grown over the past seven years?
Yes – both have grown strongly every year since the company went public, even through COVID and inflation periods.
4. Estimate the Future Growth Rate (FGR) by taking into account the Historical Growth Averages below:
a. Rear-View Mirror: median of 10-year (or available) CAGR of Equity, EPS, Revenue, FCF ≈ 22-25%.
b. Market Relativity: S&P 500 long-term ≈ 10%.
c. Company Guidance: 20-22% for 2026.
d. Sector Guidance: payments industry 15-20% long-term.
e. Analyst Consensus: long-term EPS growth ~18-20%.
f. For FGR, use the average of the above a-e: 18% (I chose a conservative 15% for the final calculation to be safe).
5. Explain how you arrived at estimated FGR? If the FGR estimate differs from the historical, what is my reasoning for changing?
I took the average of historical growth, market, guidance and analysts, then lowered it to 15% because the company is now bigger and growth naturally slows a little – better to be conservative.
6. Is the company funding their growth with cash or debt?
With its own cash – they generate more cash than they need.
7. Explain if growth is organic or from acquisitions? If growth includes acquisitions, does this business acquire other companies often and are the acquired companies small in comparison? If growth includes infrequent acquisitions and/or the other companies are large or are not in my circle of competence, explain why we should own this business.
Growth is almost 100% organic. They make very few small acquisitions. We should own it because the core platform is already excellent and growing by itself.
8. What is the Buy Price out of the 10 Cap / Owners Earnings (OE) Valuation Method?
Using latest OCF €1.03 billion, Maintenance CapEx ≈ €80 million (rule of thumb for tech company), Owner Earnings ≈ €950 million.
Intrinsic Value = €301 per share.
Buy Price (50% Margin of Safety) = €150.50.
9. What is the Buy Price out of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation Method?
Using Owner Earnings €950 million, FGR 15%, 10% discount rate, 10-year projection + terminal value.
Intrinsic Value ≈ €850 per share.
Buy Price (50% Margin of Safety) = €425.
10. What is the Buy Price out of the Buffer Zone (BZ) Valuation Method?
EPS ttm €33.60, FGR 15%, 10 years → future EPS ≈ €136.
Historical average PE ≈ 40 (conservative). Future price ≈ €5,440.
Applying 50% buffer for safety → Buy Price = **€320**.
11. Gather the valuation numbers in tables below.
a. Intrinsic Values and Buy Prices from Three Valuation methods:
| Price | OE | DCF | BZ |
|----------------|---------|---------|---------|
| Intrinsic Value| €301 | €850 | €640 |
| Buy Price | €150.50 | €425 | €320 |
b. Price Multiples: P/E, P/OCF, P/FCF:
| Price Multiple | 10-Year Average | 5-Year Average | Latest |
|----------------|-----------------|----------------|--------|
| P/E | ~45 | ~40 | 25.7 |
| P/OCF | ~35 | ~30 | ~26 |
| P/FCF | ~45 | ~40 | ~51 |
c. Return Management Metrics: ROIC, ROE, ROA:
| Management Metric | 10-Year Average | 5-Year Average | Latest |
|-------------------|-----------------|----------------|--------|
| ROIC | >20% | 25%+ | >25% |
| ROE | >20% | 22%+ | 20%+ |
| ROA | >5% | 6%+ | 5.9% |
d. Debt Management Metrics: 
e. Calculate and show (in %) the FCF Yield = (FCF/AMC) * 100. Compare it to the latest Yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond. (Benchmark: FCF Yield > Bond Yield)
- FCF Yield = 3.37% (as shown on Stockunlock.com and confirmed by latest TTM Free Cash Flow of ~€1.05 billion and current market capitalisation).
- Latest 10-year US Treasury Bond Yield ≈ 4.31%.
-
FCF Yield is still a bit below the bond yield (3.37% < 4.31%), which means the stock is not yet “cheap” on a cash-return basis.
Reference links for Chapter 5:
- Stockunlock.com FCF Yield: https://stockunlock.com/stockDetails/ADYEY/general
- Yahoo Finance Cash Flow (TTM FCF): https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADYEN.AS/cash-flow/
- Yahoo Finance key statistics & financials (for EPS, FCF, multiples): https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADYEN.AS/key-statistics/
- Calculations follow exactly TVIP_CheatSheets.xlsx tabs 10CAP, DCF, BZ using latest reported numbers.
6. INVERSION ANALYSIS
1. Explain the main problem this business faces that could cause it not to grow or even fail altogether. Instead of asking "How does the company make money?", ask "How can they guarantee ruin?".
They could guarantee ruin by ignoring new payment technologies (e.g. crypto or central-bank digital currencies), letting fraud get out of control, or becoming slow and bureaucratic so merchants switch to cheaper rivals.
2. Explain the risks this business is taking that could cause it to fail (check in Risk Factors of Form 10-K or 10-Q, or similar).
Main risks: regulation changes in many countries, cyber-attacks, strong new competitors, or a big economic crisis that stops people spending. All listed in their annual report.
3. Are company insiders selling the stock?
Yes, some sales happened in 2025-2026 after good years (normal profit-taking), but no panic selling.
4. Is the smart money (big institutional investors) selling the stock?
Some trimmed positions after the February drop, but overall big funds still hold large stakes – not mass exit.
5. There is no ceiling to the growth rate based on our analysis so far. What is the ceiling on this business?
Ceiling is when almost every large merchant already uses a similar platform and global e-commerce growth slows to 5-8% per year (probably in 15+ years).
6. In a table, create a series of 3 Inversions vs. Rebuttals (pro et contra) for every key reason to own this business. Each series needs to be written in extended comprehensive length.
7. STORYTELLING ANALYSIS
1. From all the analysis points above (Event, Meaning, Moat, Management, Margin of Safety, Inversion), make an extensive story/narrative on the company based on the analysis outcomes.
Imagine you are a regular person who owns a small online shop or works for a big company. You want to accept payments from customers all over the world without headaches. That is exactly what Adyen does.
Picture this: a big fashion brand sells shoes in Europe, America and Asia. Before Adyen they had different systems for each country – lots of contracts, different fees, and sometimes payments got stuck. Adyen gives them one single button on their website and in their shops. Money comes in smoothly, fraud is caught early with smart computer programs, and the company saves time and money. That is why big names like Uber or eBay use Adyen and stay for years.
In February 2026 the market got a little scared when Adyen said “we expect 20-22% growth next year”. The stock fell 15-20%. But look closer: revenue still grew nicely, they made more than one billion euros of profit, and they have almost no debt and piles of cash in the bank. It was just a small disappointment in guidance – not a broken business. The event is already calming down.
The real strength of Adyen is its “moat”. Once a company starts using the platform it is very hard to leave – everything works together perfectly. Competitors cannot copy this easily because building connections to hundreds of banks and payment networks takes many years. Management has been the same team for almost 20 years. They run the company like owners: they spend little on new machines, turn almost all profit into cash, and keep the balance sheet super healthy. Returns on capital are high and stable.
Valuation today (April 2026) shows the stock is not super cheap yet. Using the three methods from the Playbook we get buy prices between €150 and €425 depending on the method. Current price around €870 is above the safe “margin of safety” zone, so we are in “watch and wait” mode. The FCF yield is still below the government bond yield, which tells us the price is a bit expensive right now. But if the price falls again because of short-term news, it could quickly become a wonderful buy.
Risks exist – new rules, cyber attacks, or slower e-commerce growth could hurt. But Adyen has shown it can adapt fast. Insiders still own a good part of the company. The industry of digital payments will keep growing for the next 10-20 years because the world is becoming more online every day.
If I could own only one company forever, Adyen would be on my shortlist because it solves a real daily problem for millions of businesses, has a very strong and durable advantage, and is run by honest people who generate cash without needing to borrow money. The recent price drop gave us a chance to look closer – and what we see is a high-quality business that ordinary people like you and me can understand and feel comfortable owning for the long term.
2. Suggest on the strategy if the company today is one of the following: hard buy, buy, hold, sell, hard sell, or watchlist; explain why you made such a decision based on the Event, Meaning, Moat, Management, Margin of Safety, Inversion.
Watchlist / Hold. Everything we like about Adyen is still true: the recent event was just a small guidance disappointment that is already calming down; the business is simple, has a strong moat, excellent management, and the digital-payments industry will keep growing for many years. However, the Margin of Safety numbers still show the current price (around €870–€950) is above all three safe buy prices (€150 from 10CAP, €425 from DCF, €320 from BZ). With the FCF Yield of 3.37% lower than the 4.31% bond yield, we are not getting enough “cash return” for the price we would pay today.
That is why we keep Adyen on the watchlist. If the price falls back toward €400–€500 range (which can happen with normal market ups and downs), it would become a wonderful “buy” opportunity with real margin of safety. For now, if you already own some shares, simply hold them patiently. This is exactly how ordinary long-term investors behave — we love the company, but we only buy when the price is clearly on sale.
Valuations done with stockunlock.com.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects my personal opinions and experience as an investor. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and nothing here is personalized investment, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always do your own due diligence and consult a qualified professional before making any decisions.
Boštjan “Bastian” Ciperle